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Abstract: Research on the influence mechanism and transmission path of public expectation by central bank information is relatively rare. This paper clearly distinguished the similarities and differences between media information and central bank information. In this paper, we use dynamic general equilibrium modelling and structural vector auto-regression modelling to study the relationship between public expectation and information disclosure. Main findings are as follows: Firstly, the effectiveness of central bank communication is not only affected by central bank information disclosure, but also related to the public learning ability. Secondly, the central bank information can reduce the impact of media information noise on expectations, and the real economy learning ability is highly dependent on central bank communication. Thirdly, central bank communication has a shorter time lag and greater influence on public expectations. Media information can also play a leading role in public expectations, but there are negative factors in the short term. Fourthly, data disclosure not cooperated with central bank will weaken expectation guidance.

Full text: Influence of Public Opinions, Adaptive Learning and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy——From the Perspective of Public Expectations Management