Abstract: Ever since the Industrial Revolution, the decline of both human mortality and natality have resulted in demographic transition, brought a population explosion, demographic dividend, aging and declining birthrate to the world. As the pioneers of transition, developed countries underestimated the role of population and the severity of aging and declining birthrates, and overestimated the role of education technology, encouragement of childbirth, and improvement of the elderly. Since 1949, the population of China has expanded rapidly to slower growth, the population structure has changed from pyramid to rectangle, and China’s population transition is faster, and aging problem and sub-replacement fertility are severer. China must recognize that the demographic situation has changed, the demographic dividend was used comfortably at the time, and that it is a debt that needs to be repaid afterwards; recognize that population inertia is a huge force across generations, and its reactionary force will lead to changes in the population in the opposite direction; Realize that education and technological progress cannot compensate for the decline in population. In order to achieve the long-term goals in 2035, China should fully liberalize and encourage childbirth, and sweep off difficulties women’s faced during pregnancy, childbirth, and kindergarten and school enrollment by all means.
Full text: Thoughts on China’s Demographic Transition and Responses
