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Abstract: As the quality of the workforce and technological progress continue to emerge as important to economic growth, it is necessary to comprehensively measure the pull factors of China's economic growth. Based on the multivariate filtering method and other methods, this paper decomposes fixed capital into ICT capital and other capital, and decomposes the pull of labor force into quantity, quality and knowledge innovation, measuring the overall and industrial potential output. The results show that: the pull of technological progress (including ICT capital and knowledge innovation) is continuously rising, and the pull of labor quantity is gradually weakening, while the total factor productivity of manufacturing industry, information technology service industry and scientific research and technical service industry is growing faster. Through the production function method, this paper estimates that the potential output growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is 5%-5.7%, continue to maintain medium to high growth rate.

Full text: Measurement of China’s Potential Output and Driving Force of Economic Growth During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period